When I speak to organisations about sustainability and climate change, one of the things I emphasise is that the planet doesn’t behave in simple, linear ways. Instead, it acts like a living system, an entity that’s vast, interconnected and capable of absorbing shock, until eventually it can’t. This is why planetary tipping points are such an important concept. They’re the thresholds built into Earth’s major systems, ice sheets, rainforests, ocean currents, coral reefs, where gradual pressure suddenly flips into rapid, sometimes irreversible change.
Most of the time, these systems shift slowly. But once a tipping point is breached, the whole system can reorganise abruptly. Scientists refer to these regions of vulnerability as tipping elements, and they include the Greenland ice sheet, the Antarctic ice sheet, the Atlantic overturning circulation, permafrost, warm-water coral reefs and the Amazon rainforest. The problem is that these systems don’t operate in isolation. They influence one another. And when one tips, it can increase the pressure on the next. This interconnectedness is what makes planetary tipping points such a defining challenge for the future of business, society and the climate.
| Quick navigation points throughout the blog | |
| 1. Understanding Planetary Boundaries | 2. The Domino Effect: How Tipping Points Connect |
| 3. Why Planetary Boundaries Matter for Business | 4. The Bottom Line |
To understand tipping points properly, I always bring people back to the planetary boundaries model, pretty much the closest thing the planet has to its user manual.
The evolution of the planetary boundaries framework. Licenced under CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 (Credit: Azote for Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University. Based on Sakschewski and Caesar et al. 2025, Richardson et al. 2023, Steffen et al. 2015, and Rockström et al. 2009).
The planetary boundaries model identifies the nine processes that keep Earth stable: climate regulation, biodiversity, land use, freshwater flows, ocean chemistry, nutrient cycles, atmospheric aerosols, chemical pollution and the ozone layer. Planetary boundaries are the limits within which humanity can operate safely. Breach too many and we risk weakening the systems that regulate climate, water, agriculture and ecosystems. If planetary tipping points are cliffs, then planetary boundaries are the warning signs before you drive off them. Ignore enough and eventually gravity wins. As the above image shows, we’ve broken through several of these guard rails and are pressing hard against the next set. This matters for business because every sustainability strategy, every supply chain model and every long-term investment depends on stability and stability depends on staying within those limits.
One of the most important shifts in climate science over the last decade is the recognition that tipping elements are linked.
Take just one example:
When the Greenland ice sheet melts, it releases huge volumes of freshwater.
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That freshwater disrupts the density-driven engine of the Atlantic overturning circulation (AMOC). A weakened AMOC alters temperatures and rainfall across the Atlantic basin.
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Those shifts in rainfall place additional stress on the Amazon rainforest.
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As the Amazon dries, its ability to create its own moisture weakens, increasing the risk of large-scale forest dieback.
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This chain of interactions is what scientists like Johan Rockström refer to as the Earth’s tipping cascade. It’s not that everything collapses at once, it’s that one change increases the likelihood of another.
And unfortunately, some elements have already started to tip.
Warm-water coral reefs, for example, are now experiencing repeated mass bleaching events at a scale that suggests a global tipping point may be under way. Tunley Environmental’s recent whitepaper “Coral Bleaching in Mauritius) (written by sustainability scientists Dr Anusha Nawoor and Dr Nora Von Xylander) discusses this in great detail.
Learn More: Coral Bleaching in Mauritius
In the tropical rainforests of Australia, researchers have documented the first known case of a rainforest ecosystem flipping from a carbon sink to a carbon source. A study published in the journal Nature on 15 October 2025 found that the woody biomass (trunks and branches) in tropical rainforests of north-eastern Queensland, Australia, has become a net source of carbon dioxide rather than a sink. That represents an irreversible loss of function at the local level and a sign of what could happen elsewhere.
If one tipping element demonstrates the urgency of this moment, it’s the Amazon. The Amazon rainforest stores around 90 billion tonnes of carbon. It also generates much of its own rainfall through moisture recycling and influences weather patterns across South America, Africa and even parts of Europe. But decades of deforestation, drought, and warming mean the system is losing resilience. Scientists estimate that the Amazon has already lost around 20% of its forest cover, and losing just 5% more could trigger a dieback loop where large areas transition to savannah. This would fundamentally alter a climate system the world relies on. It could trigger additional climate tipping points, worsen global warming and destabilise food production across entire continents.
As COP30 takes place in Belém, located in the heart of the Amazon, we’re being forced to confront the reality that one of Earth’s most important stabilising systems is approaching a threshold that may soon be impossible to reverse.
That should concern every business leader on the planet.
A growing truth for leaders today is that planetary boundaries are starting to influence business boundaries.
Every business depends on:
Breaching planetary tipping points erodes all of these. Once those systems wobble, business wobbles with them.
For businesses, that translates into very real corporate risk:
No sector is insulated. Construction, manufacturing, retail, food, healthcare, energy...all rely on the stable functioning of Earth’s natural systems.
Ignoring these risks isn’t “playing it safe.”
It’s playing Jenga with the bottom row.
The uncomfortable truth is that planetary tipping points are not distant, hypothetical events. They’re happening right now, in reefs, in forests, in oceans, and they’re shaping the world we’re all trying to do business in. Another thing to consider is that tipping points can go both ways. Collapse can be sudden… but so can change. Positive cascades do exist and they’re surprisingly powerful when organisations move early and decisively. The question is whether we act quickly enough to create positive cascades before negative ones take hold. For businesses that choose to act on this, it presents an opportunity to lead, innovate and build strategies that truly support climate resilience and long-term stability.
To speak plainly, operating within planetary boundaries is good business. The expert sustainability scientists at Tunley Environmental are well-equipped to help your organisation align its sustainability strategy with what the planet can actually handle before climate and nature tipping points start calling the shots for your business.